The ad, starring Sydney Sweeney, ran on September 9. It promised viewers a betting app with “no betting on wars or deaths, and no politics.” It was a pointed line in a year when prediction markets have taken bets on almost everything. And Sweeney was more than a hired face.
According to CNBC, Sweeney approached Novig, a sports prediction market, about taking an equity stake. The size of her holding has not been disclosed. What has been disclosed is the effect. In the weeks after the campaign launched, Novig told CNBC that trading volume rose nearly 94 percent, first-time depositors rose more than 218 percent, active users rose 96 percent month on month and app downloads rose 187 percent.
The celebrity story got plenty of attention. The business story is the more interesting one, and it runs straight through New York.
A Madison Avenue company that cannot serve Manhattan
Novig is headquartered at 169 Madison Avenue, according to a federal complaint it filed in Manhattan on August 5. The defendants are New York Attorney General Letitia James and members of the New York State Gaming Commission. The case, 1:26-cv-06676 in the Southern District of New York, asks a judge to stop the state from enforcing its gambling laws against Novig’s event contracts.
The company’s argument rests on federal law. In June the Commodity Futures Trading Commission designated Ludlow Exchange LLC, Novig’s exchange, as a designated contract market. Novig argues that this places its sports contracts under the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction and beyond the reach of state gaming regulators. It says it launched event contracts on August 4 and 5, and requires users to be at least 21.
New York takes the opposite view, and its record shows it. The complaint itself notes that the Gaming Commission sent a cease-and-desist letter to the prediction market Kalshi on October 24, 2025. It also notes that the attorney general has filed actions under Executive Law section 63(12) against Coinbase, on April 21, and against Kalshi, on July 31. In effect, the state treats a sports event contract as a sports bet, whatever a federal regulator chooses to call it. New York has spent years building a licensed, taxed sportsbook market, and unlicensed sports contracts sit outside it.
Both arguments are serious. Novig’s rests on a reading of the Commodity Exchange Act that several prediction markets are pressing in courts around the country. New York’s rests on the state’s long-standing power to regulate gambling and on the revenue its licensed operators generate. Similar disputes between prediction markets and states have been fought in other courts, and the question may not be settled quickly.
The money behind the face
Sweeney’s timing as an investor looks good on paper. In February, Novig raised a $75 million Series B at a $500 million post-money valuation, bringing its total funding to more than $105 million. Its investors include Pantera Capital, Multicoin Capital and NFX, according to 15M. On September 30 the Wall Street Journal reported that Novig was raising money at a valuation of about $2 billion. Front Office Sports has reported that the round is still under discussion and could close this winter. The company says it has more than 250,000 users and $6.5 billion in trading volume.
If the round closes at that price, it would mean a fourfold increase in Novig’s valuation in less than a year. But a prediction market’s value depends on where it is allowed to operate. A company that cannot legally serve customers in the state where it has its headquarters carries a regulatory discount, and the New York lawsuit is a large part of that risk.
The backlash and the founder’s answer
The campaign also drew criticism. CNBC reported a backlash from some female athletes. Jacob Fortinsky, Novig’s co-founder, was unapologetic. “Ultimately, I think we have nothing to apologize for,” he told CNBC. He has also spoken of the company’s “aggressive risk-taking culture.”
That culture is both the company’s selling point and its exposure. The “Just Sports” line was a sharp piece of positioning. By refusing contracts on wars, deaths and elections, Novig set itself apart from rivals that have drawn criticism for taking such bets. It also strengthened its case that it is a sports exchange rather than a general gambling site. But the line is as much a pitch to regulators as to customers, and New York’s regulators have so far been unmoved.
CNBC, which first reported the growth figures, discloses that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi, one of Novig’s competitors.
What happens next
There are three things to watch. The first is the Southern District case, where any ruling on a preliminary injunction would be the first real signal of whether Novig can serve New York. The second is the funding round, and whether it closes at or near the reported $2 billion. The third is whether Sweeney stays involved beyond a single campaign, and whether other celebrities follow her into equity deals with prediction markets.
For now, the company’s best-known investor is a Hollywood star, its headquarters are on Madison Avenue in Midtown South, and its biggest obstacle is the state government in Albany. That is a New York story, whatever the ad says.
Featured image: Sydney Sweeney at the 2024 Toronto International Film Festival. Photo by Jay Dixit via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
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